Data for Climate Progress 9.29 - Debate Night
Welcome back to the Data for Climate Progress Newsletter, your bi-weekly update on new research, blog posts and memes from the Data for Progress climate team: Julian Brave NoiseCat, Marcela Mulholland and Danielle Deiseroth.
What We’re Watching
On the campaign trail:
Climate is having an electoral moment.
West Coast wildfires and Gulf Coast hurricanes have pushed climate change to prominence in the general election. Former Vice President Joe Biden has called President Donald Trump a “climate arsonist.” Meeting with California lawmakers amidst the blazes, Trump said that “science doesn’t know” what’s causing the fires.
But can it get a question?
Meanwhile, climate change does not feature in the list of topics that the candidates will debate on Fox tonight. Nonetheless, we expect Biden to lean into his climate bonafides, given that the issue provides one of the most favorable contrasts with Trump and Republicans. (Julian will be live tweeting the debate from his account: @jnoisecat.)
On the Hill:
The Clean Energy Jobs and Innovation Act passed the House of Representatives last week in a 220-185 vote with minimal media coverage. While the bill was underwhelming in many ways—the Senate version, led by Sens. Murkowski and Manchin included expedited permitting processes for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals—it also included elements of the Environmental Justice for All Act and regulations for hydrofluorocarbons, among other progressive priorities. The theory, according to insiders, is to knock out some of the bad things, like the expedited LNG permits, and to include good things, like the environmental justice priorities, in conference. Some argue that getting some more controversial moderate priorities done now might also make it easier to pass sweeping climate legislation with a new Congress and Administration.
Coalition splinters?
Notably, The Squad—Reps. Ocasio-Cortez, Pressley, Omar and Tlaib—as well as Progressive Caucus Co-Chair Pramila Jayapal and Sanders campaign co-chair Ro Khanna all voted against the bill, arguing that the package was insufficient. In a statement supporting the member’s dissent, the Climate Justice Alliance, Sunrise Movement and environmental left organizations decried carbon capture and storage technology, included in the legislation, as a “false solution.” Yesterday, the AFL-CIO released its own framework for the energy transition touting, among other things, policies that would expand offshore wind, promote energy efficiency retrofits and—you guessed it—utilize carbon capture and storage. (The pathways outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to limit warming to 1.5 or 2ºC all to varying degrees rely on carbon capture technologies.)
Just two weeks after progressive groups united with Minority Leader Schumer to launch the labor-backed THRIVE Agenda, the recent episode, which has flown under the radar, exposes enduring fissures in the Democratic coalition, pitting unions and Big Green against environmental justice communities and keep it in the ground activists with Progressive members and the Sunrise Movement caught in the middle.
Bonus:
Last summer, Julian wrote a DFP memo on the climate coalition’s divergent policy views.
Polling
In Part II of our polling with the Texas Youth Power Alliance, Data for Progress found that Texas voters—especially young voters—support a broad range of national and state-level policies to transition away from fossil fuels.
A majority of Texas voters, including 71% of voters ages 18-29, agree that the government should focus on creating good-paying jobs in clean energy.
A plurality of Texas voters (46%) think that the government should be doing less fracking. Support is even higher among young voters: A majority of voters ages 18-29 (56%) think Texas should be doing less fracking.
A majority of voters aren’t buying Trump’s unsubstantiated claim that “poor land management” rather than climate change is to blame for West Coast wildfires.
In new polling covered in HEATED, a majority of voters (58%), including 80% of Democrats and 50% of independents, agreed with the statement that climate change is worsening wildfire conditions. However, 50% of Republicans agreed that poor land management is to blame and climate change is just an excuse.
Voters are also worried about Republicans’ climate denial. A plurality of voters (49%), including 45% of independents, are more worried about Republican politicians failing to act on climate change than they are about Democratic politicians wasting government money and killing jobs.
In the wake of Hurricane Laura and the West Coast wildfires, new Data for Progress polling in collaboration with Dr. Genevieve Gunther, founder of End Climate Silence, found that a majority of voters want to see climate change covered more in the news.
An overwhelming majority of voters (77%), including a majority of Democrats, independents, and Republicans, think it’s important for the news to make the connection between climate change and extreme weather events.
Similarly, 71% of voters, including a majority of Democrats, independents, and Republicans, want to hear on the news if climate change is worsening an extreme weather event.
A plurality of voters (46%) say they are more likely to use a news source that provides more stories about climate change.
Policy
Innovation for the win!
A few weeks ago we published a report, policy recommendations and polling memo on a Progressive Climate Innovation Agenda. Last week Dave Roberts wrote about it in Vox. We’re thrilled to see progressive energy innovation policy gaining more traction.
Love Language: Public Financial Institutions
Left-leaning wonks are debating what if any new public financial institutions are needed for a just transition, with Saule Omarova’s National Investment Authority proposal, published by Data for Progress, getting some special attention. The asset management arm of the proposal—”Nicky Mac”—is especially novel.
Interlude: Environmental Humanities on Trial
Julian is the first-ever editorial fellow at the Center for Humans & Nature, where he is editing a series, organized as a tribunal of the Supreme Court of Red Natural History, a project of The Natural History Museum, calling eight expert witnesses to examine capitalist and colonial relationships to land and one other. First up: Rebecca Solnit and Thea Riofrancos.
Cross-Cutting Issues
RIP RBG
Like many, we’ve struggled to hold space for both our grief at Justice Ginsburg’s death and our fear about what the vacancy means for the Supreme Court and our democracy. With Republicans lining up in support of Trump’s nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, the road ahead looks bleak. A 6-3 conservative majority would not only have disastrous implications for our climate, but also reproductive rights, healthcare and election integrity to name but a few of the issues on the line.
DFP polling shows that a majority of voters want the Senate to wait until after the election to appoint a new Justice and believe that Congress should address coronavirus before the high court’s vacancy.
Lead Locally
Races to watch:
Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu announced a 2021 progressive run for mayor against incumbent Marty Walsh and is running on her Boston Green New Deal and Just Recovery Plan.
Chrysta Castañeda, the Democratic candidate for the Texas Railroad Commission (which doesn’t actually have anything to do with railroads, and is supposed to regulate the oil & gas industry) picked up the highly coveted endorsement of the Houston Chronicle. DFP’s polling shows this to be a tight race with a sizable portion of voters still undecided, and her success largely hinges on whether massive turnout lands Biden and her a statewide victory.
Media Hits
Democratically: 2020 (Marcela featured)
The Atlantic (Sean profiled)
Biden
E&E News (DFP mentioned)
The Atlantic (Sean quoted)
Red Green and Blue (Julian quoted)
E&E News (Julian quoted)
The American Independent (DFP mentioned)
EcoWatch (DFP mentioned)
Innovation
Vox (DFP featured)
THRIVE Agenda
Prism (Polling mentioned)
Climate media coverage
Common Dreams (Danielle & Marcela quoted)
NPR, WNYC, On the Media (Polling mentioned) (Hit around 44:30)
Media Matters (DFP mentioned)
Miscellaneous
Meme
Marcela learned how to make memes. We are now unstoppable. Pls send us your climate meme ideas!
